#21 The Pre-season Pessimism Seems a Little Silly

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espite the severance of the last vestiges of the excesses of the Di Canio era with the departures of high earners Foderingham and Andy Williams, the signing of Jordan Turnbull on a season long loan, recruiting another batch of talented, highly sought after youngsters from Liverpool, and retaining Kasim and Byrne (at least for now), the expectations amongst Swindon supporters and local media outlets on Swindon’s prospects for the forthcoming campaign have been overly negative.

Of course, in part, the pessimism was logical. Swindon lost five outstanding players in Foderingham, Stephens, Luongo, Gladwin and Louis Thompson. The play-off defeat left many supporters wounded, jaded, fed up with the naivety and lack of nous of the precocious Swindon youngsters, preferring pragmatism, experience (even seemingly for its own sake, despite Ricketts’s ineffectual spell) and graft if this ultimately yields ‘results’. Then there was the disappointment of Alfie Mawson opting to sign for Barnsley and the misguided frustration of many at Swindon not rapidly investing the Luongo and Gladwin transfer proceeds by incurring transfer fees on new players. Perhaps, more significantly, the media restrictions imposed by the Club – naturally irking those reporters of local media outlets (and me for that matter), who are influential in calibrating supporters’ pre-season expectations – unduly tainted the local media’s views on matters strictly football related. Indeed, Total Swindon Sport’s Sam Morshead – the most prominent and articulate critic of the Club’s media restrictions – in the most recent podcast of The Washbag (the principal Swindon Town FC blog), particularly peeved, half-jokingly suggested that last season might prove to be a ‘well-orchestrated fluke’. I would certainly disagree with such sentiments, but, ultimately, we shall see.

Swindon’s 4-1 drubbing (and it was an utter drubbing in the second half) of Bradford on the opening day of the season has shifted supporters’ expectations. Swindon’s performance, particularly defensively, was stronger than the last season opener against Scunthorpe in which Scunthorpe missed three or four sitters and Swindon’s defence looked vulnerable to all long, central upfield punts.

Swindon began the match with a 4-3-3 formation with Vigouroux in goal; Nathan Thompson at right back; Branco and Turnbull as centre backs; Ormonde-Ottewill at left back; Jordan Williams as the holding central midfielder with Kasim and Stewart in more advanced positions either side; and a front three (right to left) of Byrne, Hylton and Obika.

Swindon were not that bad in the first half and Bradford were certainly not the dominant side as many reports have suggested. The first Bradford goal was very good and did not stem from bad Swindon defending. In the 4-3-3 formation Swindon looked okay defensively, but the formation was adversely affecting Swindon’s passing and attacking play. Swindon were playing in straight lines and Kasim could not influence the game in an advanced midfield role. Kasim’s the ‘Iraqi Pirlo’ and, accordingly, needs to be played in a deep central midfield to dictate matters. Swindon’s build-up play from the back was conservative with Vigouroux often punting the ball long because of a paucity of passing options. This was completely different after the break with Nathan Thompson playing as sweeper and Kasim in the deep lying central midfield role.

After the break, Swindon played what some have labelled a 3-5-2 formation, which is a simplification. In fact, it was a fluid 3-2-3-1-1 formation with a back three of Branco, Thompson, Turnbull; Williams and Kasim sitting in front with Stewart in a more advanced central position; Ormonde-Ottewill and Robert (who came on for Hylton ten minutes into the game) pushed up on the flanks; and Byrne playing in a free, ‘number 10’ type role with Obika as the ‘number 9’.

The change in formation coincided with Swindon pressing Bradford high up the pitch and winning back possession rapidly, often in advanced areas. Bradford did not have any significant spells of possession in the second half and after about 75 minutes were spent physically. 

The negative of the match from Swindon’s perspective was the injury to Jermaine Hylton suffering a suspected fractured collarbone, which will probably result in a two month absence. A blow for the Club given his talent and the lack of options up front. Swindon will sign another striker before the transfer window closes.

A brief word on each Swindon player:

Vigouroux: A very impressive debut. He has presence, calmness and good distribution. His distribution is not as good as Foderingham’s yet, but I think it might well be after 10 to 15 games. There could be a few howlers in the interim. I was concerned how Swindon would cope without Foderingham; I’m not any more.

Rossi-Branco: Always plays well against Bradford and once again shackled James Hanson, who was reduced to an unathletic, bedraggled, sweaty mess by the game’s end (I’m very glad that Swindon’s game does not revolve around a 6’4”front man). Branco is underrated by most Swindon fans with many unduly prejudiced by the much publicised grappling with Aden Flint. His ability on the ball has improved vastly and he deserves more starting opportunities (although Swindon’s loan arrangement with Liverpool will mean that Jordan Williams will be given preference ahead of Branco if Williams is moved to centre back).

Thompson: Looked okay at right back, but very impressive as sweeper. With Kasim he dictated Swindon’s build-up play in the second half and played with great authority. His talents are wasted at right back where he becomes peripheral.

Turnbull: Excellent, as always.

 

Kasim: Needs a team to be built around him which probably explains the relative lack of interest from clubs higher up the football pyramid. As a deep lying creative midfielder he is outstanding. He dictated Swindon’s rhythm and tempo with Thompson in the second half.

Williams: Incredibly big for a 19 year old and a good tackler. He was assured in possession, but dwelt on the ball for too long at times. He looked a little uncomfortable when receiving the ball in tight situations at the back. He will improve rapidly as he adjusts to the pace of first team, competitive football. I expect him to blossom at Swindon. His lack of pace means that he is suited to the centre. He will probably be used as a centre back and central midfielder this season like Jack Stephens.

Robert: Good on the ball and creates space for others, but was largely peripheral. He will not offer much defensively. He was the least impressive of the new Swindon signings and I’m glad that the Club only offered him a one year deal. His best position is as a number 10 as he doesn’t have much pace. I’ll give him ten games before I make a definitive judgement.

 

Stewart: I was very impressed. Very athletic and physically stronger than I was expecting. A much needed replacement for Louis Thompson, offering athleticism and dynamism in midfield and protection on the counter-attack. Like all Swindon signings he is technically proficient. Already, he is one of Swindon’s most important players.

Ormonde-Ottewill: Looked more comfortable in the second half in a more advanced role. Technically assured, quick, with a cultured left foot. A good signing.

Byrne: magnificent in the free role. I think Cooper would have liked to have played him in this role more last season were it not for the plethora of attacking central midfielders Swindon had last season. Unfortunately, he did a little too well and will probably be sold before the end of the transfer window.

Obika: Linked up play well and is vital to Swindon’s prospects this season as the only number 9 type striker with the seemingly impending departure of Michael Smith. His first touch for his goal was exquisite. I think he is of Championship calibre.

#20 The Play-Off Final: The Fledglings Did Not Fly

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4^th May 2015 was a grey, grey day (at least from 17:30 onwards). Pragmatism and conservatism triumphed.

Before departing for Wembley I had spent the day wallowing in nostalgia, watching the 92/93 play-off final highlights and blasting out ‘Up Where We Belong’ (which strangely gets better with age)

not troubling myself with the fact that Swindon, on a financial footing, are not really up way they belong: that’s the bottom half of League One. It had also been spent engaging in superstition – more so than usual – including avoiding the number six in all forms, saluting magpies, circumventing three drains on the pavements and electing not to wear my Swindon Town ‘Imagine Cruising’ Shirt, which I like very much, because there was an outside chance that my non-supporting Swindon friends who gave me the shirt for my birthday, one of whom is a Reading fan, might have put a hex on it. 

Alighting at Wembley Park, and walking down Wembley Way, I tried to gloss over the stadium’s shortcomings – a structure of compromise rendering it akin to a giant Cineworld – and the incongruous, rather feeble, Bobby Moore statue. On entering the stadium I realised I was mistaken; it was not a cinema, but an airport terminal. Still, I suppose it’s in keeping with much of football today: hyped, vacuous and overpriced.

Three minutes into the game my stomach lurched and doom descended. Swindon’s defensive shortcomings had been exposed and Nathan Thompson, club captain, was being taken off on a stretcher. It was almost tragicomic. The tragicomedy was accentuated by a chap in the row below me, with his two embarrassed teenage daughters who were gently tugging his jacket imploring him to take his seat, pointing at a Preston fan bellowing ‘YOU’ while simultaneously clenching his fist and banging it against his head in a furious masturbatory motion. 2-0 down after 13 minutes I thought that it was probably over and so did four ‘Swindon fans’ to my right who decided that they’d seen enough and that it was time to go. Riled, I couldn’t help castigating them, uttering 'that’s pathetic'. Five minutes later they were back, which might have been because they weren’t allowed to leave; they had a change of heart; or perhaps they had simply all needed the lavatory at the same time. I didn’t enquire. Beckford’s sumptuous goal just before half-time ended the game as a contest and my half-time was spent cogitating on Swindon’s line-up for next season: Belford, Branco, N.Thompson……………… Hylton, Obika……. 

The second-half was also a fairly painful experience not helped by a group of idiotic 16-18 year olds sat behind me, of which only one was a (nominal) Swindon fan, opining that Swindon should be more direct and that Wes Foderingham was 'crap'. They also, on occasions, sarcastically applauded Swindon’s mishaps. The only pleasant aspect of the half were the cashew nuts supplied by my fiancée’s Dad, which went back and forth between him, me, my fiancée and Mike. It was undoubtedly Mike’s favourite part of the day; he ate half the bag. 

Mercifully, the full-time whistle did not result in a vast outpouring of anger, dismay or tears with most Swindon fans quietly scuttling home. Had I been on my own I might have remained in the stadium waiting for the darkness to envelop me, pondering on what might have been and that the minor miracle of Swindon’s 14/15 campaign – perhaps the most interesting, innovative and odds defying campaign of any English football club in 14/15, and worthy of at least a chapter in Soccernomics 2 – would not receive the wider acclaim it deserved. 

But then I looked at Nathan Thompson hobbling around the Swindon half of the ground on crutches, broken and defeated, applauding the Swindon fans and realised that winning, while important, particularly as it would have kept Swindon’s special group together, isn’t everything. Would I have swapped Swindon’s season for Preston’s? Nope. I wouldn’t have wanted to have missed the evolution of the first sweeper/keeper in League One; the tiki-taka passing triangles; the Iraqi Pirlo; the 1-0 victory against Bristol City that irked Steve Cotterill so; the four goals against Walsall with the snow descending; Australia’s MVP; a technical level that, at times, surpassed many Championship sides; the 5-5 draw; and witnessing the development and progression of Swindon’s apprentices, and the bond forged between them. To be trite, and (very) cheesy, I remembered the exchange in the first Mighty Ducks film – a childhood favourite – between Gordon Bombay and a chap called Hans (Gordon’s mentor, father figure – a wise, detached, Gandalf type).

Gordon: [on coach Riley – the baddy – who reminds me of Alex Ferguson] 'the guy wins'.

Hans: 'it’s not about winning, Gordon, it never was. Just show them how to play, show them how to have fun; teach them to fly!'

Over the course of the 14/15 season the Swindon fledglings flew; at times they soared.

#19 Swindon Town 5 Sheffield United 5 - Making Sense of the Madness

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t was 'a freak tie'. Possibly the best play-off game ever. As Mark Cooper aptly commented it was like watching ‘two heavyweight boxers trying to knock each other out’. Over the course of the game I felt happiness, joy, pride, ecstasy, trepidation, worry, fear, bellicosity, animosity, anger, dejection, resignation and self-pity; a year’s worth of emotion condensed into 99 minutes. During the last ten minutes of the game I reverted to my five year old self, holding the fluffy fringe of my ’92/’93 Swindon Town scarf to my face as a makeshift comfort blanket. My heart was pounding for most of the match; any underlying congenital heart defect would surely have come to light.

Much of the post-match commentary has focused on the defensive shortcomings of Swindon and Sheffield United. Sheffield United’s centre-back pairing of Alcock and McEveley – both more comfortable at full-back – were outmanoeuvred by Hylton/Obika and Smith; their midfield trio could not shackle Kasim, Luongo and Gladwin (I haven’t come across a side who can); and Harris and Done could not get to grips with Byrne, Nathan Byrne (to the tune of The Trammps' Disco Inferno).*

For much of the game Sheffield United were playing a 2-1-4-3 formation; Swindon were bamboozled. Swindon’s 3-5-2 collapsed under Sheffield United’s sustained pressure in wide areas with full-backs Freeman and Harris pushed up, pulling apart Swindon’s back three, creating multiple overloads and crossing opportunities. Swindon’s defensive shortcomings were exacerbated by failing to do something which they have done very well all season: keeping the ball. For the first time this season their opponents had more possession: 56% to 44%. This was partly due to being 3-0 up after 18 minutes and naturally retreating to preserve their advantage, but it can also be attributed, in part, to adrenaline and instinct taking over, which resulted in too much hoof ball and ceding possession. The second half was largely ‘kick and rush’. The passion of the crowd might have been a hindrance in this regard. Foderingham was more risk-averse in his distribution, generally opting for the long punt rather than a cute short pass to the back three. This was partly due to Sheffield United’s high press, but it also owed to the considerable pressure of the occasion. Quite possibly, Foderingham and the Swindon back three will adopt a similar approach at Wembley.

Whilst both teams did not defend particularly well, the attacking play should be heralded.** Sheffield United’s crossing, midfield running and overlapping full-back play were excellent, and Kasim, Smith and Byrne were outstanding for Swindon, rediscovering their early season form. Cooper should be applauded for starting Smith in both games, presumably reckoning that he would dominate McEveley aerially. He certainly did. Kasim has been a joy to watch in recent weeks. Dander up, he appears alert and sharp, dominating the central midfield area. He seems to relish the big occasion and ought to thrive on the big Wembley pitch. Wembley: here we come!

*The paucity of tailored chants for Swindon players is an irritation. This is my, perhaps pitiful, attempt at starting one.

**Not once has the miserable Nigel Clough commented on Swindon’s excellent attacking play. He seems to have a similar bent to that other miserablist, Steve Cotterill. 

#18 The Tedium is Over, Let Battle Commence

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windon supporters ought to feel confident going into the play-offs.  The players will be fresh, the squad will be injury free, bar long-term absentee Louis Thompson (admittedly a big loss), and possibly Harry Toffolo (should his dead leg not heal in time), and the only team who could claim to be technically superior to Swindon, MK Dons, will not be present.  Certainly, Swindon are capable of outplaying and beating Preston, Sheffield United or Chesterfield.  These are not sides to fear and I would be far more apprehensive as an opponent facing Byrne, Kasim, Luongo and Gladwin than Baxter and Murphy of Sheffield United; Clucas, Ryan and Roberts of Chesterfield; or even Garner, Beckford and Gallagher of Preston.

Moreover, as has been stressed in some excellent articles regarding the importance of momentum going into the play-offs (I recommend reading John Ashdown’s article - click here), Swindon’s meagre return of nine points from nine games will have no bearing on the outcome.  Cooper has done well to ignore the considerable guff from the stands, from other managers and from certain media outlets about its importance.  The priority had to be to shield Swindon’s first team players from potential injuries.  He has done that; mission accomplished.

Cooper has said that he has more or less settled on his first XI for Thursday’s first leg play-off.  Had Louis Thompson been fit his formation might have been 3-6-1, but, without him, it will probably be 3-4-1-2.  Foderingham will be in goal.  The back three, hopefully, from right to left will be: Nathan Thompson, Stephens and Turnbull.  Nathan Thompson’s extra pace will be helpful in covering the pockets of space left behind Byrne.  Playing Stephens centrally will allow him to dictate Swindon’s rhythm and tempo and impose himself on the game.

Branco and Ricketts should be on the bench.  I rate Branco highly and feel that the considerable criticism he has received in recent weeks has been excessive.  Yes, he is combustible and erratic, but his aerial ability, tackling and his passing (much improved) should be commended.  It should be noted that all of Swindon’s right-sided back three defenders have struggled at various moments this season principally because of the 3-5-2 formation* and Swindon’s Bielsaesque philosophy.  If Branco was playing in the middle of the back three or centrally in a flat back four he would seem more impressive.  Aden Flint wouldn’t be half as impressive for Bristol City if he had to play on the right hand side of their back three.

Ricketts has been a little disappointing.  I’m sure that his presence has helped Cooper in the dressing room and in training, and it was vital that Swindon recruited an additional defender for cover, but he has not improved Swindon defensively and has arguably slowed Swindon’s tempo and curtailed their attacking verve.  I suppose, given the short period of time in which he has had to adapt to Swindon’s ‘sin miedo’ passing style, this criticism is harsh, but he should not feature in Swindon’s starting back three on Thursday night, as he slows Swindon’s tempo, reduces the passing options and is no longer proficient in one-on-one defending.

The starting wing-backs should be Byrne and Toffolo.  Toffolo’s form has dipped in the last month, but in light of Swindon’s limited options, and the balance he gives the side by being left footed, he should be favoured.  Will Randall is promising, but defensively he is frail and would be exposed and targeted.    Gladwin is another option, but it would be an utter waste of his talents to shunt him out wide and saddle him with defensive duties.

The central midfield trio should be Kasim, Luongo and Gladwin, with the latter more advanced.  Cooper has seemed reluctant to play these three together, possibly concerned by their defensive frailties.  Admittedly, the midfield trio will be susceptible to the counter-attack, but not overly more than a midfield containing Jack Stephens.  Kasim and Luongo can defend.  If Swindon are to triumph they will do so through technical superiority and by dominating possession, not by setting up to stifle their opponents’ attacking threats.  Swindon simply do not have the players to play in a reactive, defensive manner.  Remember Ricketts and Stephens in central midfield against MK Dons because of Cooper’s pre-occupation with the late runs of Dele Alli?  Result: a loss of control in central midfield with MK Dons dominating and creating numerous goal scoring opportunities.  Had Kasim, Luongo and Gladwin been in central midfield Swindon, arguably, would not have lost control that day. 

Perhaps the biggest positive of the last month has been the form of Gladwin.  In an advanced central midfield role he has been formidable; cutting defensive lines with ease and possessing a considerable goal scoring threat.  His shooting is accurate and venomous.  Opposition managers will be more concerned about him than any other Swindon player.

Up front matters are not straightforward.  Until yesterday’s performance against Leyton Orient Andy Williams’s form had been dire.  His loss of form can be explained in part because of the changing set-up of opposing teams.  Williams is not a 'number nine' and thrives on space behind the opposition.  Against teams who ‘park the bus’ he struggles.  As the season has progressed, opponents have been defending deeper and deeper against Swindon which has had a particularly adverse impact on him.  Michael Smith’s loss of form seems to owe more to confidence.  Smith strikes me as a player who needs plenty of encouragement and an arm round the shoulder.  His performances have not been bad - better than Williams’s – but still some way off his early season form.  Obika is the form man and should start either alongside Michael Smith or Jermaine Hylton.  Cooper’s omission of Hylton from the match day squad against Leyton Orient suggests that he will start against Sheffield United.  Blessed with pace and the ability to weave his way through defensive lines, he has considerable promise.  Hylton’s inclusion excites, irrationally so.    

Swindon have a very good chance of triumphing in the play-offs.  As a pessimist I don’t think they will, and I’m not just saying that to steel myself for disappointment or tempting Fate to intervene.  If Louis Thompson was available and match fit I might feel differently.  Let’s hope I’m wrong, which is not an infrequent occurrence.

*This is not a criticism of Cooper adopting the 3-5-2 formation.  It is the best formation given Swindon’s personnel.

#17 Three at the Back: Bristol City and Swindon Town

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n my formative years as a football fan the 3-5-2, particularly in Europe, was the preferred formation. The German Euro ’96 winning team played it with Matthias Sammer as sweeper; the great Juventus side of mid to late 90s, and the Bayern Munich Champions League winning 2001 team, used it without a sweeper; and on a more provincial front, Martin O’Neill’s extremely direct Leicester City, marshalled by the unyielding centre back trio of Walsh, Elliott and Taggart, with Impey and Guppy galloping up and down the flanks, were exponents. The use of the formation dwindled in the noughties and is still seldom used by the elite clubs (Juventus and Liverpool aside). However, post the 2014 World Cup, the formation has made a bit of a comeback, particularly among English lower league clubs including Bristol City and Swindon Town who are thriving.

Bristol City play the 3-5-2 (more of a 3-4-1-2 in their case) in a fairly conventional manner. The back three (right to left) of Ayling, Flint and Williams is similar in style to the 2001 Bayern Munich centre back trio of Kuffour, Andersson and Linke: a slower, aerially accomplished, organiser (Flint and Andersson) flanked by two pacier, aggressive, ball winning players (Ayling and Williams, and Kuffour and Linke). For Bristol City, Aden Flint – club captain, and a colossus at 6’5” – is, arguably, Bristol City’s most important player. As you would expect, given his size, he wins everything aerially and is a considerable threat at set pieces. Ayling and Williams – very quick for centre backs – use their pace well to cover the pockets of space in the corners of the pitch: the glitch of the 3-5-2 formation. Confident in their recovery ability, Ayling and Williams press the opposition high up the pitch, dispossessing the opposition in advanced areas to start counter-attacks in their opponent’s half. Ayling and Williams could play as full-backs and, in Ayling’s case, as a box-to-box midfielder. They are both comfortable in possession and rarely resort to long punts up the pitch, unlike Flint.

Bristol City’s wing-backs, Little and Bryan, are quick and athletic. Given Bristol City’s dominance in many games, they are often high up the pitch, but do not neglect their defensive duties and expose Ayling and Williams overly to counter-attacks. Bryan is the more skilful of the duo and better in an attacking sense; he has probably been the best League One wing-back/full-back this season. 

Bristol City’s central midfield is well balanced with Pack/Elliott and Korey Smith as the double pivot, and Freeman ahead of them, operating between the lines in a ‘free role’. The midfield trio is similar in style to the 2001 Bayern Munich central midfield of Effenberg, Hargreaves and Scholl. The most eye-catching of the trio is Freeman, although Korey Smith is the most effective: comfortable in possession, an excellent passer and incredibly athletic. He is the best defensive midfielder in League One. 

Bristol City’s front two – currently Wilbraham and Agard – perform, essentially, the big man (Wilbraham), little man (Agard) act. For strikers they have a very high work rate, but are, perhaps, not good enough for the Championship in an attacking sense.

Currently, Swindon play a 3-6-1 formation rather than a 3-5-2 which they have played for the bulk of the season, although badging it a 3-5-2 is a simplification. Swindon’s 3-5-2 has actually been a 1-2-1-4-2 or 1-2-4-1-2, the latter resembling Jorge Sampaoli’s buccaneering Chileans. It is unconventional; tactically innovative; progressive some might say.

Swindon’s back three is an inversion of Bristol City’s: playing with a sweeper flanked by two orthodox central defenders. Nathan Thompson is Swindon’s sweeper, club captain and a product of the youth team. Up until the current campaign he spent most of his career as a right back/right-wing back. Technically, he is excellent: one of the most composed defenders in possession in League One. Given Swindon’s expansive style, and susceptibility to the counter-attack, he, on occasions, uses his pace to move into wide positions to cover in behind the flanking centre backs, and defend in one-on-one situations (less so as Swindon’s organisation improves). Branco and Turnbull are orthodox central defenders – good in the air (the former particularly so) – and comfortable in possession. Unlike Ayling and Williams, they are not very quick (but not slow), and would struggle to play as full-backs in a back four, making them less effective in covering the space out wide left by the three centre back formation. Although Swindon’s back three is technically superior to Bristol City’s in possession, it is a weaker defensive unit off it, not helped by the protection afforded by the wing-backs.

Swindon’s wing-backs, Byrne and Toffolo are, arguably, not really wing-backs at all. Frequently stationed well into the opposition’s half their remit (or preference) is to attack more than defend to pin back the opposition’s full backs and to be in prime position to counter-attack. This can leave Swindon exposed defensively, relying on Branco and Turnbull to defend against opposition wingers in one-on-one situations. MK Dons have been particularly good in exploiting this weakness. 

Swindon’s central midfield is the best creative unit in League One. When playing the 3-6-1 formation, typically, a diamond is used with Stephens at the base, Kasim and Luongo ahead, and Swift at the top in the ‘number 10 role’ just behind the lone striker, Smith/Williams. Generally, most opponents play a 4-5-1 formation against Swindon to swell their midfield numbers to counter Swindon’s threat, but, unless their full backs play in advanced roles – which would give them seven in midfield – they find themselves outnumbered in this area. Swindon have the highest possession per game average in League One by some margin, dominating most opponents in central midfield. Their share of the possession has not dropped below 50% in any game this season.

Up front, Michael Smith or Andy Williams play in the ‘number nine role’, the former more effective than the latter as a lone striker. 

#16 Old Man Ricketts

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windon Town desperately needed a defensive addition before the expiration of the Emergency Loan deadline. Since Louis Thompson’s injury playing Jack Stephens in central midfield has become a necessity leaving Swindon with no defensive cover for the back three of Rossi-Branco, Nathan Thompson and Turnbull. Banking on these three to play all nine games in a rather hellish April run-in would have been optimistic in the extreme. Thankfully, considerable aid has arrived in the form of Sam Ricketts on loan from Wolves until the end of the season (including the play-offs).

Sam Ricketts is a wholly untypical Lee Power/Mark Cooper signing. For a start he’s old, so very old. At 33 he is five years older than Swindon’s former oldest codger, Andy Williams, who is four years older than any other member of Swindon’s first team squad. Ricketts’s arrival raises the average age of Swindon’s first team squad from 22 to 23. He is not a ‘saleable asset’. Reportedly* on a weekly wage at Wolves in the five figure region - let’s say £10,000 - he earns approximately £8,500 more than the average weekly wage of a Swindon Town player. Given Swindon’s tight budget, and Lee Power’s penchant for haggling, I would presume that Swindon are not paying Ricketts’s wages in full; probably no more than £4,000 per week. His signing says a great deal about Lee Power’s feelings about Swindon’s chances to finish in second place and achieve automatic promotion – it’s on!

Ricketts ought to help Swindon defensively. Vastly experienced with excellent positional awareness, and good aerially, he brings qualities that are not the strongest suit of Swindon’s first team squad (of course, largely because of their inexperience). He will improve Swindon’s ‘game management’ (apologies for the inane football jargon); particularly in those periods when Swindon are not in possession and come under pressure (in Swindon’s case usually 15 minute spells). The fans of Ricketts’s previous clubs all speak very highly of him. The statements: “a true pro”; “a class act”; and “sorry to see him go” are used again and again on fan forums. He seems to be the type of person who improves the culture of the organisation in which he operates: a hard worker, disciplined and thoughtful. A giver, not a taker. Ricketts is also, clearly, a leader. He has natural authority when interviewed and even more on the pitch. Physically, he looks the part. At 6’1” with his chiselled, aquiline features, prominent cheekbones and broad shoulders, he could easily play the part of Maximus Decimus Meridius or Aragorn son of Arathorn**.

Back to the football, Ricketts will probably play instead of Rossi-Branco as Swindon’s right-sided centre back in the back three. However, in games when Rossi-Branco’s aerial presence is needed, Ricketts might have to accept a substitute berth as he won’t start ahead of the excellent Nathan Thompson and Turnbull in the back three. Equally, as his energy levels and pace are declining, he would probably not play ahead of wing-backs, Byrne and Toffolo, who are, in any case, virtually wingers. He would also not start in central midfield unless Jack Stephens was injured. 

My only slight concern about Ricketts’s signing is the short period of time in which he has had to adapt to Swindon’s unique playing style. Ricketts has always played in a back four throughout his career and largely for teams who did not play possession based football. Nota bene: he played for Swansea under Kenny Jackett, not Roberto Martinez. Although experienced and versatile, receiving the ball in tight, pressurised, dangerous areas, and being expected to opt for the short pass rather than an aimless long punt, might require a longer period of adaptation than one week!

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Ricketts’s signing was his principal motivation for joining. Ricketts wants to be a manager after his playing career – he is already a de facto player/coach at Wolves – and wants to immerse himself in Swindon’s culture, style and observe their training sessions. Surprised at Swindon’s technical excellence in the away fixture at Wolves last season, Ricketts wants to understand how Swindon, with their meagre resources, play with such panache. Luke Williams: your coaching sessions are going to be observed acutely. 

Not only has Swindon become a nursery for technically gifted young footballers, but it might also be becoming part of a Grand Tour for aspiring young managers. The football community is impressed.

*I do stress reportedly.

**I know that this is bordering on the homoerotic.

#15 Wobble – Blip – [Slump]

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windon are in a spot of bother. At the start of February they were title contenders; now they are bottom of the League One form table. Player confidence is eroding, exacerbated by a braying contingent of Swindon fans at home games, and consequently Swindon’s tika-taka style – requiring bravery and considerable personal responsibility – is in danger of imploding. 

Swindon have lost five out of their last eight games, losing away to Sheffield United, Oldham, Scunthorpe and at home to Crawley and Gillingham. The away defeats did not concern me unduly given Swindon’s poor records at each of Sheffield United, Oldham and Scunthorpe, the playing conditions, and Cooper’s assertions that Swindon’s performance levels did not dip materially in these games from previous fixtures with positive outcomes. However, the defeats at home to Crawley and Gillingham did, with Swindon looking blunt in attack and, particularly against Gillingham, very vulnerable to the counter-attack.

In the ‘wobble – blip’ phase Cooper’s stance, at least to the media, was, essentially, that Swindon were still dangerous going forward, accomplishing multiple entries into the final third of the opposition’s half of the pitch, and creating several goal scoring opportunities. Quite simply, Swindon were missing chances which they were previously tucking away. The wins would come if Swindon kept on doing what they were doing. After all, Swindon were still playing with a poise and swagger admired by many opposition fans and managers. But not all Swindon fans agreed, with plenty opining that Swindon’s possession was sterile, not opening up teams with their previous regularity. 

Certainly, there has been a shift in how teams (not all) are setting themselves up against Swindon: defending deeper and content to let Swindon play the ball out from the back. In short, teams are ‘parking the bus’, generally with two deep-lying banks of four depriving Swindon of space centrally in their third of the pitch. Previously, teams tended to adopt the high press against Swindon, fearing that they would not be able to withstand a Swindon siege, which gave Swindon more space in the opponent’s third and more opportunities, to use the buzz-phrase, ‘in the transition’. However, now teams seem increasingly relaxed at the prospect of Swindon camping out in their third of the pitch reckoning that Swindon will find it difficult to cut through the two narrow banks of four – increasingly so with the poorer pitches – forcing Swindon to go wide to find space where they are less threatening. Equally, parking the bus will encourage Swindon to commit too many players in advanced positions to find a breakthrough, thereby creating opportunities on the counter-attack, which Swindon – pace and athleticism not being a strong suit, particularly in midfield (Louis Thompson aside) – are not well equipped to handle. 

Evidently, not all of Swindon’s woes stem from a shift in the opposition’s set up. Some players are just out of form and, given their tender years, quite possibly fatigued. Harry Toffolo’s crossing is out of sync; Kasim appears sluggish: we probably have the Iraqi national coach’s regimen to thank for that; Michael Smith is not imposing himself in matches like he was in the first few months of the season when he was regarded as a £500,000 plus player; and Andy Williams, not helped by the lack of space in behind the opposition which he needs to be at his most effective, is not converting his chances. Tactically, some believe that Swindon’s 3-5-2 formation is not working. Given that Swindon’s training has been tailored to the 3-5-2 system all season, and they have a shortage of wide players, switching formation to a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 at this late stage would seem ill-advised when the 3-5-2 has generally served them very well thus far. Then there are the advocates of the “Plan B”; translation – be more direct. Were Swindon to adopt a more direct approach it would be disastrous. For a start, the Swindon players are ill-suited to this style of play. Indeed, when they have fleetingly adopted such an approach the outcome has been generally to lose control of proceedings, resulting in a slugging match. Worse still, Plan B would damage Swindon’s reputation as a nursery/training ground for talented young players. Swindon would not be able to continue to secure or attract the talented youngsters that they have today. In fact, adopting Plan B would mean no Lee Power and no Luke Williams. Plan B won’t happen under Lee Power’s tenure, and thank God for that! 

By far the biggest problem which Swindon have is the injury to Louis Thompson. Unfortunately, Swindon do not have a replacement box-to-box midfielder which leaves the central midfield imbalanced. None of Kasim, Luongo, Gladwin or Swift are very good off the ball and do not relish defensive duties. Without Louis Thompson the midfield seems overly tentative in possession, possibly perturbed that if they lose possession their lack of pace will be exposed on the counter-attack. Even Jack Stephens, for all his qualities, does not have the pace, recovery or ball winning abilities in advanced areas of Louis Thompson. 

To end the current malaise Swindon would be best served by sticking with Plan A. Spring is nigh, opposition pitches should improve and the poor form of certain players will hopefully be short-lived. As I recall, Swindon had a poor February last season, but finished the campaign reasonably strongly. Let’s also pray that Louis Thompson has not played his last game for Swindon. Without him promotion seems unlikely.

#14 Alli v Luongo

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assimo Luongo – the 2015 Asian Cup’s most valuable player (my snobbish side precludes me from using MVP). Not Shinji Kagawa; not Son Heung-min; not Omar Abdulrahman, but Massimo Luongo. ‘Massimo Luongo of Swindon Town’ was stated by some, but most Asian Cup commentators/journalists preferred to stress his participation in ‘the third tier of English football’, the implication being that this is an aberration. And I suppose they’re right. It is an aberration or at least an oddity. The most valuable player in the Asian Cup ought not to be playing for a team in the third tier of English football. He probably ought to be playing in the Premier League, shouldn’t he?

Before the Asian Cup Luongo received no national coverage (and, in fact, still doesn’t really) unlike another central midfield starlet of League One, Dele Alli. Before his £5 million move to Tottenham from MK Dons, Alli had received a considerable amount of national exposure, rarely out of national newspaper gossip columns with all of the Premier League heavyweights reportedly monitoring his progress, and even Bayern Munich. He was praised effusively on the Football League show on a frequent basis and was even the subject of an article which is still up on the League One section of BBC Sport: ‘MK Dons’ Dele Alli has the makings of next Steven Gerrard’. You might have thought that BBC Sport would have done a piece on Massimo Luongo in the same section given his performances in the Asian Cup, and Australia’s triumph, but they haven’t. Perhaps a piece is in the pipeline, I don’t know. Anyway, why was Alli coveted by Premiership clubs, whereas Luongo has only, thus far, attracted admiring glances in England from Championship clubs? 

Alli is 18; Luongo is 22. Alli is 6’2” plus and incredibly athletic, a bona fide thoroughbred; Luongo is 5’9” and is neither particularly stocky nor quick. Alli is box-to-box; Luongo lets the ball do the work. Alli has scored 12 league goals this season; Luongo – 3. Alli is the next Steven Gerrard; Luongo is still Luongo. Surely no contest then? Well, not quite. In technique and ball control Luongo has the edge, I think, as well as a stronger left foot. The more you watch him the more you appreciate him. He’s so assured in possession that you think one of his rare misplaced passes must be deliberate. To put it crudely, if Alli’s style mirrors Gerrard’s, Luongo’s mirrors that of Jack Wilshere. 

Of course the main reason that Alli is coveted more than Luongo is down to age. If Alli develops at the same rate between 18 and 22 as he did between 15 and 18 then he will probably surpass Luongo in technique. But age, I don’t think, is the only reason. Alli’s principal qualities are those that immediately catch the eye: power, pace, raking passes, tackling and goal scoring. Luongo’s aforementioned qualities are less striking, but no less important, arguably more so. Alli will make the League One PFA team of the year, and deservedly so. Luongo ought to be a shoo-in too, but had it not been for the Asian Cup thrusting him into the spotlight, I’m not too sure he would have. Indeed, some would probably rate Luke Freeman more highly (no doubt plenty of Bristol City fans). That would not happen in Germany, Spain or the Netherlands, but, in the land of Roy of the Rovers, it still does.

#13 Football League One Possession Statistics: Swindon Town – League One’s Barcelona

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windon’s televised game against Coventry on Sky showcased the team’s qualities to a wider audience. The comments on Twitter expressed a mixture of surprise and admiration neatly encapsulated by the following: “serious question: when did Swindon become Barcelona?” Flattering stuff, and arresting, but not quite on the money.

Like Barcelona, Swindon play possession based football from back to front with similar triangular passing patterns. Aimless, hopeful long balls into ‘the mixer’ are discouraged. Unlike Barcelona, Swindon play with a sweeper and two centre forwards in a 3-5-2 (or 3-1-4-2/3-4-1-2) formation and place more responsibility on goalkeeper, Wes Foderingham, in possession. Sweeper, Nathan Thompson, has been compared to Franco Baresi (not quite as ridiculous as it sounds) and Yaser Kasim, a deep lying playmaker, currently playing in the Asian Cup for Iraq, to Andrea Pirlo. So, although both teams would be placed in the ‘good football’ camp, there are significant differences.

Focusing on possession, Barcelona currently average 66.6% of the possession per game compared to Swindon’s 58.23% (see the League One possession table below using figures provided by BBC Sport). Bayern Munich average a whopping 71.1%. Still, Swindon’s possession per game average trumps Juventus’s - 57.2% and Arsenal’s and Manchester City’s - 56.6%. Of course this does not mean that Swindon are remotely on a par with these clubs in quality, but their possession per game average is very high for a League One club. Quite simply, Swindon, depending on your football philosophy, arguably control pretty much every game they play. In fact, Swindon average nearly five percentage points more than MK Dons, who average 53.57% and are very much considered to keep possession and play passing football. A nearly five percent difference between first and second (in the possession table) is quite staggering when you consider that five percentage points cover the teams from second to twentieth. Swindon really are the possession kings of League One.

But does possession matter? Is there a correlation between possession and league standings? Broadly speaking, it would seem so. Looking at League One, the top three teams in terms of points, Swindon, Bristol City and MK Dons, are in the top five of the possession per game averages. Additionally, seven of the top ten teams in League One are in the top ten for possession. At the bottom, five of League One’s bottom eight clubs, Crawley, Gillingham, Crewe, Colchester and Leyton Orient, are in the bottom eight of the possession table.

The points/possession correlation has strengthened over the course of the season with low possession teams like Crawley, Gillingham, Fleetwood and Notts County falling down the League One table and Walsall, having the third highest possession per game average, rising. This suggests that Preston, currently fourth in League One, probably won’t achieve automatic promotion because of Swindon’s, Bristol City’s and MK Dons’s superiority in possession. Additionally, Bradford, despite having several talented players, will do very well to maintain their fifth spot with their possession average of just 47.52%. Poor old Crawley and Gillingham have been in the bottom two of the possession table for the entire season and relegation seems likely. Conversely, Yeovil and Walsall fans should be optimistic; both are likely to improve on their current standings.

There aren’t any teams in League One who have the tactical nous, discipline or defensive capabilities to cede possession in an Atletico Madrid style and win regularly. Possession does matter; at least in League One.

League One Possession Table as at 18/01/2015

	Average possession per game (%)	Difference between league table standing
1. Swindon	58.23	0
2. MK Dons	53.37	1
3. Walsall	53.11	11
4. Oldham	52.75	8
5. Bristol City	52.69	-3
6. Chesterfield	52	2
7. Rochdale	51.4	-2
8. Yeovil	51.25	16
9. Sheff Utd	51.18	-2
10. Port Vale	50.61	-1
11. Preston	50.44	-7
12. Peterborough	50.24	3
13. Coventry	50.16	5
14. Scunthorpe	49.78	3
15. Doncaster	49.51	-2
16. Barnsley	48.88	0
17. Leyton Orient	48.56	3
18. Colchester	48.4	4
19. Crewe	47.76	2
20. Bradford	47.52	-14
21. Notts County	47.5	-11
22. Fleetwood	46.81	-11
23. Gillingham	46.58	-4
24. Crawley	45.36	-1

#12 A Chap Called Clem and Pugnacious Negotiating

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eterborough – a bogey team, beaten; Fleetwood – overcome by a ‘professional performance’; Notts County - crushed. With Swindon lying second place in the League 1 table, and notching up five wins in a row, the Club finally caught the attention of the national media. A chap from the Independent wrote an uninspired piece, informing his readers that Swindon are playing well with a style of football not seen since the Glenn Hoddle days. Then came the Holy Grail of national coverage for all lower league football teams: a five minute slot on the Football League Show with the over familiar Mark Clemmit, ‘Clem’. Clem did his usual hyper-active routine, greeting Mark Cooper as ‘mate’, threatening to put an arm around his shoulder before extolling Swindon’s achievements in the current campaign. Naturally, his visit coincided with Swindon losing 1-0 at home to Doncaster. I don’t blame Clem.

Against Doncaster Swindon’s passing lacked its usual precision and incision, but they still had enough chances to have won the game including missing a penalty. Doncaster’s goal came from an undeserved penalty (as accepted by their manager Paul Dickov). Mark Cooper was relatively content with Swindon’s performance. I was too, although I think Swindon’s link up play between the strikers and midfield has dropped a notch in the last two home games in striker, Michael Smith’s absence. I hope Cooper starts him in the next home game. Swindon are still playing a fluid 3-5-2 system with a proper sweeper (perhaps the only league club doing so) and top the League 1 possession table. It’s all rather lovely.

Behind the scenes, Swindon’s owner, and de facto Director of Football, Lee Power, has been ‘having talks’ with three of Swindon’s, to use Power’s term, ‘conveyor belt’ players (talented players who are currently irregular starters in the first team, but will ultimately feature more regularly after further development and when Swindon’s first team players are snapped up by bigger clubs) to extend their contracts; in the case of Ben Gladwin and Raphael Rossi Branco beyond the end of the season, and in Jake Reeves’s case beyond January.

Ben Gladwin, a 22 year old midfielder, was signed from non-league Marlow mid-way through the previous season for a nominal fee (possibly c£20,000). At 6’3” Gladwin looks like he should be a centre-back or centre-forward, but the physical part of the game is not his strong suit. Ironically, he was released by Reading’s Academy when he was 14 for apparently being too small. His strength is his technique and touch: the best player in training according to Mark Cooper. He’s unfortunate to be competing against three of League 1’s most accomplished central-midfielders for a starting berth. He would start as an attacking central-midfielder/‘No.10’ for most League 1 teams. When he has started this season he has generally played as a wing-back which is not his ideal position given his lack of pace, and defensive frailties, although his crossing is top notch. Negotiating Gladwin’s contract extension to June 2017 seemingly proved incredibly straightforward for Lee Power. Apparently, it was pretty much a case of ‘where do I sign Boss?’ Gladwin, based on Twitter photos, body language and his own comments is very happy at the Club. He’s certainly ‘one of the boys’ and appears to be very well liked by the rest of the squad. On signing the new deal he said it was an easy choice and that staying at Swindon would make him a better footballer. If only all footballers had a similar mindset.

Extending Jakes Reeves’s and Rossi Branco’s contracts has proved less straightforward. Jake Reeves, a tidy, compact, busy, technical, 21 year old central-midfielder, who signed on a free after his contract with Brentford was terminated by mutual consent, seems a little discontent at his lack of first team opportunities thus far. Indeed, the principle reason for Reeves leaving Brentford was to play first team football. Money is not the issue. Swindon are very keen for him to stay. To secure a contract extension for Reeves, Power will have to convince him that his first team opportunities will come and that Swindon’s current central-midfield trio will eventually move on and that he won’t find many better environments than Swindon to hone his technique and skill. Given Swindon’s current form, and the possibility of gaining promotion to the Championship and retaining Kasim and Luongo beyond the current campaign, Power can’t even say that he’ll probably be playing next season. Will Reeves wait for first team football? I don’t think he will. He’ll certainly be able to get it elsewhere. 

Rossi Branco, a 24 year old centre-back (his previous club was non-league Whitehawk) is robust, aerially strong, quick and technically sound. When he first arrived at the start of the 2013/14 season he was ungainly, clumsy and technically not particularly assured. He has improved immeasurably and his signing and development underlines the Wenger-esque talent spotting of Swindon’s current management team. 

Negotiations with Branco are protracted and have brought to the fore Power’s negotiating style: more pugnacious than conciliatory. Power wants Branco to sign an extension to June 2017. Initially, Branco was keen to sign the extension and ‘shook on the deal’, not once but twice, before backtracking, after, according to Power, ‘someone [had] got in his ear’ (not literally of course). This annoyed Power, as it would anyone, resulting in Branco being left out of the squad for the Notts County game. Reports then said that Branco was keen to stay and the contract might be signed before the Doncaster game. There was no announcement before the game that a deal had been concluded, although Branco was not omitted from the match day squad unlike the Notts County game which suggests that either relations have improved or Power regrets his previous decision.

As a Swindon Town fan, my knee-jerk, emotional reaction to Branco’s stance is ‘greedy git; so much for that badge thumping against Bristol City’. Being dispassionate, Branco, like most people, just wants the best deal for himself – ‘it’s nothing personal, just business’. Of course, shaking on a deal and backtracking isn’t great form. Power is trying to bring matters to head before January when Branco will get extra game time (because of Kasim and Luongo competing in the Asia Cup) which will attract greater attention from other clubs and increase his value. Branco knows this and is stalling. However, by stalling, he takes the risk that Power might exclude him again from the match day squad and, with no playing time, depress his value and weaken his negotiating hand. Power’s stance in the modern game is unusual in that the current received wisdom is generally to adopt an emollient approach, not to exclude or isolate players, even if they are behaving badly. Arms around shoulders and praise, rather than criticism and ‘rockets up backsides’, are the order of the day. I’ll side with Power on this one. I’d want him as my negotiator.