S
windon’s televised game against Coventry on Sky showcased the team’s qualities to a wider audience. The comments on Twitter expressed a mixture of surprise and admiration neatly encapsulated by the following: “serious question: when did Swindon become Barcelona?” Flattering stuff, and arresting, but not quite on the money.
Like Barcelona, Swindon play possession based football from
back to front with similar triangular passing patterns. Aimless, hopeful long
balls into ‘the mixer’ are discouraged. Unlike Barcelona, Swindon play with a
sweeper and two centre forwards in a 3-5-2 (or 3-1-4-2/3-4-1-2) formation and
place more responsibility on goalkeeper, Wes Foderingham, in possession. Sweeper,
Nathan Thompson, has been compared to Franco Baresi (not quite as ridiculous as
it sounds) and Yaser Kasim, a deep lying playmaker, currently playing in the
Asian Cup for Iraq, to Andrea Pirlo. So, although both teams would be placed in
the ‘good football’ camp, there are significant differences.
Focusing on possession, Barcelona currently average 66.6% of
the possession per game compared to Swindon’s 58.23% (see the League One
possession table below using figures provided by BBC Sport). Bayern Munich
average a whopping 71.1%. Still, Swindon’s possession per game average trumps
Juventus’s - 57.2% and Arsenal’s and Manchester City’s - 56.6%. Of course this
does not mean that Swindon are remotely on a par with these clubs in quality, but
their possession per game average is very high for a League One club. Quite
simply, Swindon, depending on your football philosophy, arguably control pretty
much every game they play. In fact, Swindon average nearly five percentage points more
than MK Dons, who average 53.57% and are very much considered to keep
possession and play passing football. A nearly five percent difference between
first and second (in the possession table) is quite staggering when you
consider that five percentage points cover the teams from second to twentieth. Swindon
really are the possession kings of League One.
But does possession matter? Is there a correlation between
possession and league standings? Broadly
speaking, it would seem so. Looking at League One, the top three teams in terms
of points, Swindon, Bristol City and MK Dons, are in the top five of the possession
per game averages. Additionally, seven of the top ten teams in League One are
in the top ten for possession. At the bottom, five of League One’s bottom eight
clubs, Crawley, Gillingham, Crewe, Colchester and Leyton Orient, are in the
bottom eight of the possession table.
The points/possession correlation has strengthened over the
course of the season with low possession teams like Crawley, Gillingham,
Fleetwood and Notts County falling down the League One table and Walsall,
having the third highest possession per game average, rising. This suggests
that Preston, currently fourth in League One, probably won’t achieve automatic
promotion because of Swindon’s, Bristol City’s and MK Dons’s superiority in
possession. Additionally, Bradford, despite having several talented players,
will do very well to maintain their fifth spot with their possession average of
just 47.52%. Poor old Crawley and Gillingham have been in the bottom two of the
possession table for the entire season and relegation seems likely. Conversely,
Yeovil and Walsall fans should be optimistic; both are likely to improve on
their current standings.
There aren’t any teams in League One who have the tactical
nous, discipline or defensive capabilities to cede possession in an Atletico Madrid
style and win regularly. Possession does matter; at least in League One.
League One Possession Table as at 18/01/2015
Average
possession per game (%)
|
Difference
between league table standing
|
|
1. Swindon
|
58.23
|
0
|
2. MK Dons
|
53.37
|
1
|
3. Walsall
|
53.11
|
11
|
4. Oldham
|
52.75
|
8
|
5. Bristol City
|
52.69
|
-3
|
6. Chesterfield
|
52
|
2
|
7. Rochdale
|
51.4
|
-2
|
8. Yeovil
|
51.25
|
16
|
9. Sheff Utd
|
51.18
|
-2
|
10. Port Vale
|
50.61
|
-1
|
11. Preston
|
50.44
|
-7
|
12. Peterborough
|
50.24
|
3
|
13. Coventry
|
50.16
|
5
|
14. Scunthorpe
|
49.78
|
3
|
15. Doncaster
|
49.51
|
-2
|
16. Barnsley
|
48.88
|
0
|
17. Leyton Orient
|
48.56
|
3
|
18. Colchester
|
48.4
|
4
|
19. Crewe
|
47.76
|
2
|
20. Bradford
|
47.52
|
-14
|
21. Notts County
|
47.5
|
-11
|
22. Fleetwood
|
46.81
|
-11
|
23. Gillingham
|
46.58
|
-4
|
24. Crawley
|
45.36
|
-1
|
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