#13 Football League One Possession Statistics: Swindon Town – League One’s Barcelona

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windon’s televised game against Coventry on Sky showcased the team’s qualities to a wider audience. The comments on Twitter expressed a mixture of surprise and admiration neatly encapsulated by the following: “serious question: when did Swindon become Barcelona?” Flattering stuff, and arresting, but not quite on the money.

Like Barcelona, Swindon play possession based football from back to front with similar triangular passing patterns. Aimless, hopeful long balls into ‘the mixer’ are discouraged. Unlike Barcelona, Swindon play with a sweeper and two centre forwards in a 3-5-2 (or 3-1-4-2/3-4-1-2) formation and place more responsibility on goalkeeper, Wes Foderingham, in possession. Sweeper, Nathan Thompson, has been compared to Franco Baresi (not quite as ridiculous as it sounds) and Yaser Kasim, a deep lying playmaker, currently playing in the Asian Cup for Iraq, to Andrea Pirlo. So, although both teams would be placed in the ‘good football’ camp, there are significant differences.

Focusing on possession, Barcelona currently average 66.6% of the possession per game compared to Swindon’s 58.23% (see the League One possession table below using figures provided by BBC Sport). Bayern Munich average a whopping 71.1%. Still, Swindon’s possession per game average trumps Juventus’s - 57.2% and Arsenal’s and Manchester City’s - 56.6%. Of course this does not mean that Swindon are remotely on a par with these clubs in quality, but their possession per game average is very high for a League One club. Quite simply, Swindon, depending on your football philosophy, arguably control pretty much every game they play. In fact, Swindon average nearly five percentage points more than MK Dons, who average 53.57% and are very much considered to keep possession and play passing football. A nearly five percent difference between first and second (in the possession table) is quite staggering when you consider that five percentage points cover the teams from second to twentieth. Swindon really are the possession kings of League One.

But does possession matter? Is there a correlation between possession and league standings? Broadly speaking, it would seem so. Looking at League One, the top three teams in terms of points, Swindon, Bristol City and MK Dons, are in the top five of the possession per game averages. Additionally, seven of the top ten teams in League One are in the top ten for possession. At the bottom, five of League One’s bottom eight clubs, Crawley, Gillingham, Crewe, Colchester and Leyton Orient, are in the bottom eight of the possession table.

The points/possession correlation has strengthened over the course of the season with low possession teams like Crawley, Gillingham, Fleetwood and Notts County falling down the League One table and Walsall, having the third highest possession per game average, rising. This suggests that Preston, currently fourth in League One, probably won’t achieve automatic promotion because of Swindon’s, Bristol City’s and MK Dons’s superiority in possession. Additionally, Bradford, despite having several talented players, will do very well to maintain their fifth spot with their possession average of just 47.52%. Poor old Crawley and Gillingham have been in the bottom two of the possession table for the entire season and relegation seems likely. Conversely, Yeovil and Walsall fans should be optimistic; both are likely to improve on their current standings.

There aren’t any teams in League One who have the tactical nous, discipline or defensive capabilities to cede possession in an Atletico Madrid style and win regularly. Possession does matter; at least in League One.


League One Possession Table as at 18/01/2015

Average possession per game (%)
Difference between league table standing
1. Swindon
58.23
0
2. MK Dons
53.37
1
3. Walsall
53.11
11
4. Oldham
52.75
8
5. Bristol City
52.69
-3
6. Chesterfield
52
2
7. Rochdale
51.4
-2
8. Yeovil
51.25
16
9. Sheff Utd
51.18
-2
10. Port Vale
50.61
-1
11. Preston
50.44
-7
12. Peterborough
50.24
3
13. Coventry
50.16
5
14. Scunthorpe
49.78
3
15. Doncaster
49.51
-2
16. Barnsley
48.88
0
17. Leyton Orient
48.56
3
18. Colchester
48.4
4
19. Crewe
47.76
2
20. Bradford
47.52
-14
21. Notts County
47.5
-11
22. Fleetwood
46.81
-11
23. Gillingham
46.58
-4
24. Crawley
45.36
-1

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