I
’m not too sure who originally said this, and I can’t be bothered to check, but I do know that its original application was to property ownership rather than football possession, which is generally the context in which I hear it today: ‘as everyone knows Gary, possession is nine-tenths of the law’ (Alan Hansen/Alan Shearer/Mark Lawrenson – delete as appropriate).
A couple of years ago, when Barcelona were
in their pomp, it was almost universally accepted in the football world that
possession-based football was how the game should be played. Tika-taka,
tika-taka, more tika-taka. The rationale being: the side with possession
controls the game and exhausts the opposition. In more recent years with
Barcelona’s and the Spanish national team’s relative decline, this mode of
football has lost its lustre. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid did
not win the Champions League with overwhelming possession: they won it principally
by being excellent in the transition and on the counter-attack.
Certainly, teams – the most striking being Atletico Madrid – have improved in defending against sides of Barcelona’s ilk,
soaking up the possession and pouncing when the opposition is overstretched. Some
would contend that dominating possession does not result in more wins and can
be adopted for high-minded, artistic reasons with counter-attacking football
regarded as vulgar and grubby, almost cheating. Perhaps this is most evident in
the contrasting football philosophies of Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho.
As a spectacle there are plenty who find the
performance of tika-taka dull as dishwater – a view with which I have some
sympathy. Passing the ball along the back three/four from side to side, then
back to the goalkeeper and back to the defence does not get the pulse racing. It
requires the patience of the crowd almost as much as that of the players.
So, is possession the most important component of
football? Does greater possession lead to more wins? I don’t know the answer to
this; my guess – probably. Simon Kuper will know: wait for Soccernomics 2.
Anyway, the Swindon Town management adhere
to the ‘possession is the path to joy’ mantra. In the opening four League One
games against Scunthorpe (H), Crawley (A), Gillingham (A)
and Crewe (H), Swindon have dominated possession, strikingly so. 52%
against Scunthorpe; 62% against Crawley (despite playing the game for 40
minutes with 10 men); 65% against Gillingham; and 61% against Crewe. For a League
One side these possession statistics are impressive as it is uncommon for a
side to achieve 60% possession as teams at this level are less skilful in ball
manipulation.
The table below shows that Swindon top the
possession league in League One, after four games, by a handsome 16 points
ahead of Walsall whose manager, Dean Smith, is a strong advocate of the
tika-taka. Only three teams have managed to keep their level of possession at
50% and above in all four games: Swindon, Walsall and Sheffield United. Yet, Swindon, Walsall and Sheffield United are not 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the League One Table. It is Fleetwood who top the table with possession statistics that would put them in 20th place – one place above the relegation zone. It would seem, admittedly with a small sample size, that there is little correlation between possession and wins.
League One Table after four games
Position
|
Team
|
GD
|
Pts
|
1.
|
Fleetwood
|
4
|
10
|
2.
|
Peterborough
|
2
|
9
|
3.
|
Preston
|
5
|
8
|
4.
|
Bristol City
|
2
|
8
|
5.
|
Barnsley
|
3
|
7
|
6.
|
Swindon
|
3
|
7
|
7.
|
MK Dons
|
2
|
7
|
8.
|
Bradford
|
2
|
7
|
9.
|
Doncaster
|
2
|
7
|
10.
|
Notts County
|
2
|
7
|
11.
|
Chesterfield
|
1
|
7
|
12.
|
Sheffield United
|
0
|
6
|
13.
|
Crawley
|
-1
|
6
|
14.
|
Leyton Orient
|
1
|
5
|
15.
|
Coventry City
|
0
|
5
|
16.
|
Port Vale
|
0
|
5
|
17.
|
Rochdale
|
1
|
4
|
18.
|
Gillingham
|
-3
|
4
|
19.
|
Yeovil
|
-4
|
4
|
20.
|
Walsall
|
-1
|
3
|
21.
|
Oldham
|
-3
|
2
|
22.
|
Colchester
|
-3
|
1
|
23.
|
Scunthorpe
|
-8
|
1
|
24.
|
Crewe
|
-7
|
0
|
Possession-based
League One Table
Position
|
Team
|
Possession Average %
|
Actual League Table Position
Comparison
|
1.
|
Swindon
|
60
|
-5
|
2.
|
Walsall
|
56
|
-17
|
3=
|
Sheffield United
|
52.75
|
-9
|
3=
|
Barnsley
|
52.75
|
-2
|
3=
|
Chesterfield
|
52.75
|
-8
|
6=
|
Bristol City
|
52
|
+2
|
6=
|
Rochdale
|
52
|
-11
|
6=
|
Preston
|
52
|
+3
|
9.
|
MK Dons
|
51.5
|
+2
|
10=
|
Coventry
|
51
|
-5
|
10=
|
Oldham
|
51
|
-11
|
12.
|
Yeovil
|
50.5
|
-7
|
13.
|
Port Vale
|
50
|
-3
|
14=
|
Colchester
|
49.25
|
-8
|
14=
|
Crewe
|
49.25
|
-8
|
16.
|
Notts County
|
49
|
+6
|
17.
|
Peterborough
|
48.75
|
+15
|
18.
|
Leyton Orient
|
48
|
+4
|
19.
|
Scunthorpe
|
47
|
-4
|
20.
|
Fleetwood
|
46.5
|
+19
|
21.
|
Doncaster
|
46.25
|
+12
|
22.
|
Bradford
|
45.5
|
+14
|
23.
|
Crawley
|
45.25
|
+10
|
24.
|
Gillingham
|
42.5
|
+6
|
For all of Swindon’s possession they have not won all of their
first four games, beating Scunthorpe and Crewe 3-1 and 2-0 respectively, but losing
to Crawley 1-0 and drawing 2-2 against Gillingham. Despite receiving plaudits
from opposition managers for their style and panache they have only notched up
eight points. Some fans are frustrated. Against Crewe there were cries of ‘GET
IT IN THERE’ and ‘SHOOOOOOOT’. They are sceptical. It’s alright for teams like
Barcelona to play possession-based football, but, for teams at Swindon’s level,
it doesn’t work. You need players of the calibre of Xavi and Iniesta to play
that way. I recall Stuart Hall with typical bombast asserting that you need
Barcelona players to player like Barcelona. Based on the above tables he might have
a point, but, I think, come the season’s end, there will be a strong
correlation between points and possession.
Thankfully, more and more lower league teams are trying to
play possession-based football. This trend only really began in earnest when Roberto
Martinez took the reins at Swansea City in 2007 who were then in League Two. Martinez
transformed the Club guiding it to the upper echelons of the Championship when
he departed in 2009. Tactically, Swansea were one of the few lower league teams
to play a 4-2-3-1 – the 4-4-2 almost being de rigueur – and to adhere
resolutely to a possession-based style. Martinez improved existing players like
Leon Britton, Garry Monk and Alan Tate markedly, particularly the latter two in
passing the ball out from the back, and supplemented the squad with some
foreign gems in Ferrie Bodde, Andrea Orlandi, Angel Rangel and Guillem Bauza. At
this point many lower league managers were highly sceptical as to the merits of
foreign players, particularly Latin-based players, believing that they could
not adapt to the ‘English game’. Perhaps they can’t as Martinez didn’t play the
‘English game’. He didn’t think much of it.
Martinez dispelled the notion that lower league players were
incapable of playing possession-based football. He reckoned that most lower
league teams were capable of passing the ball out from the back, but through
pessimistic coaching, mental laziness and a lack of bravery were failing to do
so. Players were not playing without fear; Martinez’s motto is ‘sin miedo’
(without fear)*. For Martinez, hoofing the ball into Row Z and ‘giving it the
hefty toe’ should be castigated, not accepted.
Anyway, enough of Roberto. I hope Swindon continue to play
the possession-based game and that many lower league clubs follow suit. This
will do more to improve the national team than idiotic schemes like Greg Dyke’s
Premiership B League.
* I’d like to add that my fondness for Martinez’s motto does
not extend to ‘No Fear’ T-shirts. In my experience those donning these garments
should not be held in high regard.
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