#4 ‘Possession is Nine-Tenths of the Law’

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’m not too sure who originally said this, and I can’t be bothered to check, but I do know that its original application was to property ownership rather than football possession, which is generally the context in which I hear it today: ‘as everyone knows Gary, possession is nine-tenths of the law’ (Alan Hansen/Alan Shearer/Mark Lawrenson – delete as appropriate).  

A couple of years ago, when Barcelona were in their pomp, it was almost universally accepted in the football world that possession-based football was how the game should be played. Tika-taka, tika-taka, more tika-taka. The rationale being: the side with possession controls the game and exhausts the opposition. In more recent years with Barcelona’s and the Spanish national team’s relative decline, this mode of football has lost its lustre. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid did not win the Champions League with overwhelming possession: they won it principally by being excellent in the transition and on the counter-attack.

Certainly, teams – the most striking being Atletico Madrid – have improved in defending against sides of Barcelona’s ilk, soaking up the possession and pouncing when the opposition is overstretched. Some would contend that dominating possession does not result in more wins and can be adopted for high-minded, artistic reasons with counter-attacking football regarded as vulgar and grubby, almost cheating. Perhaps this is most evident in the contrasting football philosophies of Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho.

As a spectacle there are plenty who find the performance of tika-taka dull as dishwater – a view with which I have some sympathy. Passing the ball along the back three/four from side to side, then back to the goalkeeper and back to the defence does not get the pulse racing. It requires the patience of the crowd almost as much as that of the players.

So, is possession the most important component of football? Does greater possession lead to more wins? I don’t know the answer to this; my guess – probably. Simon Kuper will know: wait for Soccernomics 2.

Anyway, the Swindon Town management adhere to the ‘possession is the path to joy’ mantra. In the opening four League One games against Scunthorpe (H), Crawley (A), Gillingham (A) and Crewe (H), Swindon have dominated possession, strikingly so. 52% against Scunthorpe; 62% against Crawley (despite playing the game for 40 minutes with 10 men); 65% against Gillingham; and 61% against Crewe. For a League One side these possession statistics are impressive as it is uncommon for a side to achieve 60% possession as teams at this level are less skilful in ball manipulation.

The table below shows that Swindon top the possession league in League One, after four games, by a handsome 16 points ahead of Walsall whose manager, Dean Smith, is a strong advocate of the tika-taka. Only three teams have managed to keep their level of possession at 50% and above in all four games: Swindon, Walsall and Sheffield United. Yet, Swindon, Walsall and Sheffield United are not 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the League One Table. It is Fleetwood who top the table with possession statistics that would put them in 20th place – one place above the relegation zone. It would seem, admittedly with a small sample size, that there is little correlation between possession and wins.

League One Table after four games

Position
Team
GD
Pts
1.        
Fleetwood
4
10
2.        
Peterborough
2
9
3.        
Preston
5
8
4.        
Bristol City
2
8
5.        
Barnsley
3
7
6.        
Swindon
3
7
7.        
MK Dons
2
7
8.        
Bradford
2
7
9.        
Doncaster
2
7
10.    
Notts County
2
7
11.    
Chesterfield
1
7
12.    
Sheffield United
0
6
13.    
Crawley
-1
6
14.    
Leyton Orient
1
5
15.    
Coventry City
0
5
16.    
Port Vale
0
5
17.    
Rochdale
1
4
18.    
Gillingham
-3
4
19.    
Yeovil
-4
4
20.    
Walsall
-1
3
21.    
Oldham
-3
2
22.    
Colchester
-3
1
23.    
Scunthorpe
-8
1
24.    
Crewe
-7
0


Possession-based League One Table 

Position
Team
Possession Average %
Actual League Table Position Comparison
1.        
Swindon
60
-5
2.        
Walsall
56
-17
3=
Sheffield United
52.75
-9
3=
Barnsley
52.75
-2
3=
Chesterfield
52.75
-8
6=
Bristol City
52
+2
6=
Rochdale
52
-11
6=
Preston
52
+3
9.
MK Dons
51.5
+2
10=
Coventry
51
-5
10=
Oldham
51
-11
12.
Yeovil
50.5
-7
13.
Port Vale
50
-3
14=
Colchester
49.25
-8
14=
Crewe
49.25
-8
16.
Notts County
49
+6
17.
Peterborough
48.75
+15
18.
Leyton Orient
48
+4
19.
Scunthorpe
47
-4
20.
Fleetwood
46.5
+19
21.
Doncaster
46.25
+12
22.
Bradford
45.5
+14
23.
Crawley
45.25
+10
24.
Gillingham
42.5
+6

For all of Swindon’s possession they have not won all of their first four games, beating Scunthorpe and Crewe 3-1 and 2-0 respectively, but losing to Crawley 1-0 and drawing 2-2 against Gillingham. Despite receiving plaudits from opposition managers for their style and panache they have only notched up eight points. Some fans are frustrated. Against Crewe there were cries of ‘GET IT IN THERE’ and ‘SHOOOOOOOT’. They are sceptical. It’s alright for teams like Barcelona to play possession-based football, but, for teams at Swindon’s level, it doesn’t work. You need players of the calibre of Xavi and Iniesta to play that way. I recall Stuart Hall with typical bombast asserting that you need Barcelona players to player like Barcelona. Based on the above tables he might have a point, but, I think, come the season’s end, there will be a strong correlation between points and possession.

Thankfully, more and more lower league teams are trying to play possession-based football. This trend only really began in earnest when Roberto Martinez took the reins at Swansea City in 2007 who were then in League Two. Martinez transformed the Club guiding it to the upper echelons of the Championship when he departed in 2009. Tactically, Swansea were one of the few lower league teams to play a 4-2-3-1 – the 4-4-2 almost being de rigueur – and to adhere resolutely to a possession-based style. Martinez improved existing players like Leon Britton, Garry Monk and Alan Tate markedly, particularly the latter two in passing the ball out from the back, and supplemented the squad with some foreign gems in Ferrie Bodde, Andrea Orlandi, Angel Rangel and Guillem Bauza. At this point many lower league managers were highly sceptical as to the merits of foreign players, particularly Latin-based players, believing that they could not adapt to the ‘English game’. Perhaps they can’t as Martinez didn’t play the ‘English game’. He didn’t think much of it.

Martinez dispelled the notion that lower league players were incapable of playing possession-based football. He reckoned that most lower league teams were capable of passing the ball out from the back, but through pessimistic coaching, mental laziness and a lack of bravery were failing to do so. Players were not playing without fear; Martinez’s motto is ‘sin miedo’ (without fear)*. For Martinez, hoofing the ball into Row Z and ‘giving it the hefty toe’ should be castigated, not accepted.

Anyway, enough of Roberto. I hope Swindon continue to play the possession-based game and that many lower league clubs follow suit. This will do more to improve the national team than idiotic schemes like Greg Dyke’s Premiership B League.


* I’d like to add that my fondness for Martinez’s motto does not extend to ‘No Fear’ T-shirts. In my experience those donning these garments should not be held in high regard.

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